Blackjack is one of the most popular casino games and one of few where players can actually influence the outcome. Unlike games of pure chance like electronic games or roulette, blackjack involves strategy, decision-making and knowing your odds. But what exactly are your odds in blackjack, and how can you use that knowledge to your advantage? In this article, we’ll break down everything you need to know about blackjack odds. Whether you’re a newbie trying to get a better grasp on the game or an experienced player looking to refine your strategy, understanding the odds will be key to boosting your chances of success at the table.
What Are Blackjack Odds
Blackjack odds refer to the chances of winning, losing or tying in a hand, based on the cards you’re dealt and the dealer’s upcard. The player has about a 42% chance of winning a hand, while the dealer wins around 49%. Here’s a breakdown of some key odds:
- House Edge: In Blackjack, the house edge is usually around 0.5% if you play with perfect strategy. This means, for every $100 you bet, you can expect to lose about 50 cents in the long run.
- Odds of Busting: The odds of busting depend on your hand. For example, if you have a total of 12, your chance of going over 21 (busting) when you hit is about 31%. The higher your hand total, the greater the odds of busting.
- Odds of Getting a Blackjack: The odds of being dealt a natural Blackjack (an Ace and a 10-value card) are about 4.8% or roughly 1 in 21 hands.
- Dealer’s Bust Odds: The odds of the dealer busting depend on their upcard. For example, if the dealer shows a 6, their chance of busting is around 42%.
What Are the Odds of Winning Blackjack
The odds of winning in Blackjack depend on several factors, including the rules of the game, your strategy and the dealer’s upcard. Here’s an overview:
- The Odds of Winning Blackjack: The player has about a 42% chance of winning a hand, while the dealer wins around 49%. The remaining 9% percentage results in ties (called a push).
- House Edge: The house edge in Blackjack is around 0.5% when using perfect strategy. This means that over time, the casino has a slight advantage, but Blackjack offers some of the best odds in the casino compared to other games.
- Odds of Winning With a Blackjack: If you’re dealt a natural Blackjack (an Ace and a 10-value card), you’re almost guaranteed a win unless the dealer also gets a Blackjack, in which case it results in a push. Winning with a Blackjack typically pays out at 3:2 odds. The odds of being dealt a blackjack is only 4.8%!
- Impact of Strategy: Your chances of winning significantly improve if you follow basic strategy, which helps you make the best possible decisions based on your hand and the dealer’s upcard.
Blackjack Odds Chart
| Player Hand Total | Winning Odds | Pushing Odds | Losing Odds | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 (Blackjack) | ~100% (if dealer does not have Blackjack) | 0% | 0% | 0% (but payout 3:2 if won) |
| 20 | ~92% | ~8% | ~0% | ~0.5% |
| 19 | ~85% | ~8% | ~7% | ~0.5% |
| 18 | ~77% | ~8% | ~15% | ~1% |
| 17 (Soft or Hard) | ~70% | ~8% | ~22% | ~1% |
| 16 | ~60% | ~8% | ~32% | ~1.5% |
| 15 | ~50% | ~8% | ~42% | ~2% |
| 14 | ~42% | ~8% | ~50% | ~2% |
| 13 | ~35% | ~8% | ~57% | ~2.5% |
| 12 | ~30% | ~8% | ~62% | ~3% |
| 11 | ~50% (Double Down) | ~0% | ~50% | ~1% (when doubling) |
| 10 | ~50% (Double Down) | ~0% | ~50% | ~1% (when doubling) |
| 9 | ~42% (Double Down) | ~0% | ~58% | ~1.5% (when doubling) |
| 8 or Less | ~30% | ~0% | ~70% | ~4% |
Blackjack Side Bet Odds
Blackjack side bets offer the chance for extra payouts, but they come with higher risks and a larger house edge compared to the main game. Here’s a breakdown of common side bet odds:
- Perfect Pairs: This side bet pays out if your first two cards form a pair. The odds vary based on the type of pair:
- Mixed pair (e.g., a red 8 and a black 8): 5:1
- Colored pair (e.g., two red 8s): 12:1
- Perfect pair (e.g., two identical 8s): 25:1
The house edge for this bet can range from 2% to 11%, depending on the payout structure.
- 21+3: This bet combines your first two cards with the dealer’s upcard, creating a three-card poker hand. The payouts are:
- Flush: 5:1
- Straight: 10:1
- Three of a kind: 30:1
- Straight flush: 40:1
- Suited trips: 100:1
*The house edge for 21+3 is typically around 3%–7%.
- Insurance: If the dealer’s upcard is an Ace, you can take insurance, betting that they have Blackjack. The odds are 2:1, but the house edge for this bet is around 7%, making it a less favorable option for players in the long run.
- Bet the Set: This side bet pays if your first two cards form a pair, and payouts vary:
- Pair: 10:1
- Suited pair: 20:1
The house edge on Bet the Set can be 8% or higher, depending on the rules.
How Often Does the Dealer Bust in Blackjack
| Dealer Upcard | Odds of Busting | Odds of Not Busting | Pushing Odds | Comments |
| 2 | ~35% | ~65% | ~8% | Dealer is more likely to bust with a 2 as upcard. |
| 3 | ~37% | ~63% | ~8% | Slightly higher bust rate compared to a 2. |
| 4 | ~42% | ~58% | ~8% | Strong potential for busting. |
| 5 | ~42% | ~58% | ~8% | Very high bust probability; dealer has a weak position. |
| 6 | ~42% | ~58% | ~8% | Known as the “dealer bust card”; high bust potential. |
| 7 | ~26% | ~74% | ~8% | Less likely to bust compared to weaker cards. |
| 8 | ~24% | ~76% | ~8% | A relatively strong card for the dealer. |
| 9 | ~23% | ~77% | ~8% | Better odds for the dealer; lower bust potential. |
| 10 | ~23% | ~77% | ~8% | Strong hand; minimal bust odds. |
| Ace | ~17% | ~83% | ~8% | Dealer’s best card; very low bust potential. |
Test Your Blackjack Odds at WinStar Casino
Understanding blackjack odds is a crucial step towards becoming a better player. While the house always maintains a slight edge, smart strategies, good bankroll management and knowledge of the game’s odds can significantly improve your chances of winning. The next time you sit down at a Blackjack table at WinStar, you’ll be better prepared to make decisions that can tip the odds in your favor.
Of course, with any game of skill, practice makes perfect. At WinStar World Casino & Resort, our tables are always open, and we invite you to drop in and hone your skills with our expert dealers. No matter your experience level, we’re always ready to ensure you have a great time in an environment imagined for action.
